The Political Turmoil in Uttrakhand

The increasing din of the campaigns has set the mood. With the battlefield beckoning invitingly, the air of excitement and anticipation settles. Come 14th February, and Uttarakhand is all ready to elect 70 members for the state’s assembly. 

 Uttarakhand’s existence, over two decades, has been marred by political uncertainty and instability, wherein eight politicians have occupied the seat of the Chief Minister since 2000 when the state came into being. The internal politics of the state have received much attention in the past few months, with the resignation of two chief ministers within a year. Post a wide-scale dissatisfaction with his government, Trivendra Singh Rawat resigned on March 9, 2021, making way for the ninth Chief Minister — and the sixth from the BJP; Tirath Singh Rawat. However, in July 2021 Tirath Singh Rawat also resigned and Pushkar Singh Dhami was appointed as the youngest chief minister of the state. With less than a year for the Assembly elections, the new incumbent sure had his task cut out. 

Meanwhile, Congress promptly advanced at the opportunity created by the political turmoil. Harish Rawat, the former chief minister, made attempts to solidify his position and power as the leader of the campaign committee. Joining him as the state unit chief was Ganesh Godiyal. Congress was also able to bring back into its party, Yashpal Arya, a prominent Dalit leader, and his son, by achieving a defection in the BJP. Thus, the power-play had already begun between the leading candidates long before the actual election. However, for Uttarakhand, this was not new. For most of its existence, Uttarakhand has been seen as a bipolar polity, with political power oscillating between the BJP and Congress. No party has been elected by the state to serve consecutive terms. Power changes hands every five years, and the key trends dominating this practice have been, the growing dominance of BJP and the non-BJP/non-Congress party’s uneven influence.

Notwithstanding the anti-incumbent practice of Uttarakhand, BJP has held a favourable position among the voters of the state. All five seats were swept by BJP in 1991, while in 1996 it only lost two seats to the newly formed Congress retaining the remaining three. In 1998 it again won all five seats and in 1999 it won four out of the possible five seats.

In the first Lok Sabha election of the state in 2004, three seats were won by BJP while both the Samajwadi Party and the Congress got one seat respectively.The only exception was in 2009 when all the five seats in Uttarakhand were won by Congress. By the 2014 and 2019 elections, BJP had regained control over Uttarakhand with massive margins.

The rising popularity of the BJP has worked in tandem with the declining vote share of non-BJP, non-Congress parties. While the vote share of the BJP and Congress combined in 2002 stood at 52 per cent, by 2007 it increased to 61 per cent and in 2012 it was 67 percent. 

On the other hand, non -Congress and non-BJP, non-Congress parties like the BSP, the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal, the BSP, and the SP experienced a fall in their vote share from 48 percent in 2002, to 39 percent in 2007 and 33 percent in 2012.

While BJP will be fiercely defending its seat, Congress will be desperately wanting to avenge its loss of 2017. The bipolar politics of the state will also receive a twist with Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the league. Majorly, AAP is emphasizing a clean government and local issues. To make any impact AAP needs a significant amount of “alternative” votes. However, the Dalit’s and Muslim’s base for the BSP will be difficult to capture.

The target of winning 60 plus seats out of a possible 70 by the BJP has been referred to as ‘unrealistic’ by poll observers.

 JS Rawat, poll commentator remarks that the Modi factor, which was an essential force behind the BJP’S victory in the last polls, is no longer as powerful as it was in 2017. Furthermore, the political instability caused by changing three chief ministers within five years may put a blot on BJP’S chances of victory. But insiders from the party say that ‘ the move is going to work in its favour as it has offset the impact of anti-incumbency that might have been there against the former chief ministers’.

Although the controversial agricultural laws that were roll-backed could provide some reinforcement, this alone is not sufficient to guarantee a victory.

The BJP will also rely heavily on the Modi factor and the “double-engine” government because of which the hill state has witnessed “unprecedented” growth of rail, road, and air connectivity, despite the disruption caused by COVID.

From its inception, Uttarakhand has developed a trend, where votes are predominantly bifurcated along three lines — the Brahmins and Thakur’s, people of the plains and hills, and Kumaoni and Garhwali. Nonetheless, the ‘ hill city ‘ has been left with many unfulfilled promises and goals that the electoral contenders of the upcoming 2022 elections must take into consideration.

For instance, Uttarakhand has faced major demographic and economic issues due to migration. The need for quality education and better economic and job security has been a constant concern for the young population of the state. These problems are compounded by the geographical propensity of the state, where dense forests, steep hills, and harsh weather conditions make it difficult to get employable education.

Susan, a young pahadi laments, “There are no vacancies in the hills. There are few sources of income or employment. This is forcing them [youth] to migrate to the plains. Young boys of Uttarkashi are concerned about their future.”

For the girls of Uttarakhand, education and employment become more serious concerns as they fail to get their family’s support after a point, due to lack of opportunities.

Furthermore, there is a distinct absence of private sectors in the state which leaves for the educated youth, nothing else but the recruitment test of the armed forces and government agencies. Few also take up farming, which is not very remunerating in this state.

Where does the problem lay?

Locals of the state opine “There has not been proper guidance to the youngsters in the hilly areas. If we get that, it will help us to grow and find suitable opportunities.”

“During elections, politicians visit us making all sorts of promises but they don’t do anything about youth. The government should be more focused on the youth and create jobs,”

A survey conducted by CVoter predicts a marginal increase in Congress’s vote share and a minor fall in the vote share of BJP, not enough for it to lose. Furthermore, 10 percent of the votes could go to AAP, without making much difference in terms of the seats. The popularity of Harish Rawat also doesn’t seem to translate into gains for Congress, probably because of the shortcomings of the party.While the BJP on the other hand needs to engage more with the national issues and utilise Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity if they wish to see a future post the anti-incumbency against the state government.

For the much anticipated Uttarakhand Assembly elections, we now need to see how these various factors play out on the fateful day of 14 February.

Surabhi Ganguly

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