Manipur Legislative Assembly Election, 2022

The North-Eastern state of Manipur is going into its 13^th Legislative Assembly elections, along with four other states, from February 27 to March 10. Unlike other ‘heavyweight’ states and battlegrounds like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the electoral action in Manipur is apparently being fought away from the eyes of the, say, a common onlooker from the rest of the country. However, Manipur, like all other states facing elections, does carry significant electoral dividends for the vying political parties.

The current Manipur Legislative Assembly, constitutive of 60 seats, is headed by the Chief-Minister-ship of Nongthombam Biren Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the leader of the opposition is Okram Ibobi Singh of the Indian National Congress (INC) who served as Chief Minister of the state for the long period of 2002 to 2017.

The BJP showed an unprecedented rise in the last elections, winning 21 of the 60 seats, although it was nowhere close to the magic figure of 31 seats necessary to form a government in the assembly. Ibobi Singh’s INC was on the way to pushing for a government with the 28 seats they had won. However, timely and deft horse-trading and creation of alliances with other parties who had secured seats, pushed the BJP-led alliance to 32 seats, and they had thus formed the government, and henceforth we have been seeing a steady decline in the influence of INC in the field.

Like other Indian states, Manipur too is divided along various ethno-religious fault-lines. Although some view the strategic border state as the ‘last Hindu bastion’ in the growingly Christian-dominated northeast, the 2011 census shows Hindus and Christians at 41.39% and 41.29% of the population, respectively. The rise of Christianity in Manipur, whose main cause seems to be the migration of ethnic Nagas, is one of the central issues on which the upcoming election will probably be fought.

The Naga People’s Front (NPF), one of BJP’s alliance partners in the current government, had won 4 seats out of the 10 they had contested. Recent trends indicate that the BJP may go into a pre-poll alliance with the NPF, thus solidifying its base and not letting votes get divided. However, trends also show that the BJP may ditch Conrad Sangma-led National Peoples’ Party (henceforth NPP). The NPP is BJP’s ally in Meghalaya; however, BJP’s ambitions of winning 45 seats alone, thus having the singular majority, is pushing them to choose their partners carefully.

The BJP’s ambition of winning 45 seats may also be hampered through infighting. Reports say there is more than one intending candidate vying for a BJP ticket in most constituencies — candidates losing out may break off and stand independently, cutting into the potential voter base of the BJP.

The INC is constantly on the heels of the BJP. N. Biren Singh’s coalition government had come with the promise of reducing corruption and practicing fair governance. INC claims that the government has failed to do so, and instead engages in scams of multiple crores. The strongest allegation is against Thongam Biswajit Singh of BJP, Minister of the Public Works Department (henceforth PWD). Manipur Pradesh Congress Chief K. Meghachandra stands firm on his allegation against Singh misappropriating funds worth 800 crores INR in the PWD during the 2021-22 financial year.

The opinion polls have reflected a tentative majority for the BJP, which is necessary for their hold in the northeastern region as a whole. However, in case of a hung parliament, smaller outfits such as NPP and NPF shall become the kingmakers, and we may see another phase of horse-trading to wrest control of Manipur for the next five years.

Debayan Das Gupta

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